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Sharp Seven: Week 6 Gambling Picks

Last week: 2-5

Season total: 16-19 (46%)

There’s no way around it. Last week was bad. Really bad. We started off the weekend 0-5 before Penn State and Notre Dame gave us our only two wins of the week Saturday night. Nothing like a good old-fashioned rivalry week to get things back on track so here we go.

Georgia Tech -3.5 at Louisville

I see this one as a case of one team coming off a very emotional loss and not being ready the next Saturday. Bobby Petrino’s seat continues to heat up as he moves to 0-3 in ACC play this season.

#19 Texas vs #7 Oklahoma -7.5

Texas has looked good recently and funky things tend to happen in rivalry games but Oklahoma is just on another level right now. The Sooners have one of the most high-powered offenses in the country and change the numbers on the scoreboard in a hurry. Texas’ defense has been very good but they will have a hard time scoring enough point to keep the score within a touchdown.

Boston College at #23 NC State -3.5

NC State is quietly off to one of the best starts in college football this season. The Wolf Pack are coming off of a convincing win over Virginia last week while Boston College is still trying to figure out what went wrong at Purdue two weeks ago. Carter-Finley Stadium is one of the tougher venues in the ACC and their fans will be ready to see their ranked Wolf Pack play. NC State by a touchdown in this one.

#5 LSU -3 at #22 Florida

Florida is fresh off of a big upset win at Mississippi State and the swamp should be rocking for this one Saturday afternoon. LSU enters this week undefeated and ranked in the top 5 in the country. Both teams feed off of their defense and points will come at a premium this weekend. I can’t buy into the UF stock just yet as I’m not sold that Mississippi State is a very good team right now. LSU has quality wins which UF does not and the Tigers take care of business in the swamp Saturday.

#13 Kentucky at Texas A&M -6

Kentucky is one of the most surprising teams in the nation as they enter this week at 5-0 and ranked in the top 15. Texas A&M played a brutal September schedule which consisted of two top five teams in Clemson and Alabama. The Aggies got a bounce-back win over Arkansas last week and are set to host the Wildcats for a prime-time showdown in front of 100,000 people. Jimbo Fisher is very familiar with Kentucky coach and former FSU defensive coordinator Mark Stoops and what he likes to do. Fisher will scheme up a few big plays and the Aggies win by a touchdown.

#6 Notre Dame -5.5 at #24 Virginia Tech

Notre Dame had one of the most impressive performances in the country Saturday night defeating #7 Stanford 38-17 at home in prime time.  This week they will try to replicate that performance on the road in a hostile environment. The Hokies are coming off of a win over #22 Duke and night games in Blacksburg are a daunting task for any team. That said, this Irish defense has been stout and will completely shut down the Hokies offense. Give me the Irish on anything under a 7 point spread here.

Florida State +13.5 at #17 Miami

13.5 is a huge number in this rivalry game. Too often, this game comes down to the wire despite how the season is going for either team. On paper, Miami should roll in this one easily. That said, I like FSU’s chances of keeping it close.

The Seminoles found some offense this weekend on the road in Louisville scoring 21 second-half points, all through the air. Coach Taggart has been adamant about trying to establish the run game but understands all of the offensive success so far this season has come when Francois has time to find his receivers. Saturday was the first time since 2014 where Florida State’s offensive line did not give up a sack in an ACC game.

That likely won’t be the case this weekend as Miami has a very good front seven and has lived in opposing backfields this season. The Hurricanes are extremely aggressive which also gives opponents a lot of one-on-one matchups on the outside. I think FSU finds enough chunk plays to score some points. As long as we don’t see the turnover chain several times, FSU should find a way to cover the points although I don’t see a way the Seminoles win this one outright.

 

 

 


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