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Sharp Seven: Futures and Week Zero Picks

With the 2019 college football season just days away, it’s time to make all of you rich over the next few months! If you bet all of our picks a season ago, you would have made enough money to cover your holiday expenses.

I hit on 54.7% of the 84 games bet on last year, easily coming out with a net positive. Anything over a 52% hit rate will typically turn a profit for any bettor. Keep in mind that most professional sports gamblers would love to win 55% of their bets placed every year.

With that said, let’s jump right into some future win totals and take a look at Week Zero!

Baylor over 7.5 wins

This is a bet entirely on head coach Matt Rhule and his track record. Rhule won two games in year one at Temple, six games in year two and 10 games in each of his final two seasons there.

At Baylor, Rhule won just one game and upped that total to seven a season ago. Baylor has a very manageable schedule and has the potential to really shake up the Big 12 this season.

Clemson under 11.5 wins

On paper, there aren’t many games that should be close for Clemson this season. That said, going 12-0 in any regular season is always a tall task.

Even in recent years the Tigers have made the playoff and won national championships, they have dropped regular season games to Syracuse and Pitt. Yes, the ACC is not looking great in 2019 but I think Clemson slips up somewhere along the way.

Florida under 9 wins

The Gators are one of the most overrated teams heading into 2019 in my opinion. Florida rode some very lucky waves to get to nine wins in 2018 and the schedule this year looks to be much tougher.

I give them little to no chance of beating Georgia or winning at LSU. From there, I just need one more loss for a push, two to win the bet outright. With road trips to Kentucky, South Carolina and Missouri, they find a way to lose at least one of those games. Add in Miami in Orlando as well as hosting what should be improved teams in Tennessee and Florida State and UF isn’t sniffing double-digit wins in 2019.

Georgia under 11 wins

I’m looking at this one as a value bet as I only need one UGA loss to break even here. The Bulldogs draw Auburn and Texas A&M from the SEC West, both games they could potentially lose. Similar to Clemson, going unbeaten in a 12-game regular season is just extremely tough to do so I’m banking on them losing one game they shouldn’t.

Florida State over 7.5 wins

Last year was a complete and utter disaster for the Seminoles. Anything that could have gone wrong, did. Florida State enters the 2019 season with a chip on their shoulder and a much more manageable schedule.

At Clemson looks to be the only auto-loss for the ‘Noles in 2019 with several toss-ups mixed in. I think the cohesion of a vastly upgraded coaching staff coupled with a refocused roster pushes FSU to the over on this one. Beating Boise State in week one is paramount but I think Taggart and the ‘Noles get it done.

Miami +7.5 versus Florida (Orlando) and under 47 total points.

As I said above, UF is comically overrated heading into 2019. They are my lock for a preseason top 10 team to finish outside of that group.

Both defenses should be well ahead of the offenses in this game and with what looks to be very wet conditions, I just don’t see a lot of points here. The Gators should win but it will be an ugly, low-scoring game. Something along the lines of 17-13 where UF wins but the ‘Canes cover.

Well, there it is. A special bonus edition of our Sharp Seven column that will go live every week on NoleGameday.com. Looking forward to making a lot of money with all of our loyal readers this college football season!


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