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Sharp Seven – Week 3 Gambling Picks

Logan Stanford/Icon Sportswire

Last Week – 5-2 (71%)

Season Total: 8-6 (57%)

Hopefully you followed the picks this past weekend as we bounced back going 5-2 against the spread. The 71% hit rate last week will be tough to duplicate but we look forward to riding the momentum into what should be an interesting week 3.

Boston College  -5.5 at Wake Forest

Once again, I’m going against a weeknight home dog. This might be the best Boston College team Steve Addazio has ever fielded. BC will look to ride sophomore running back AJ Dillion who has 247 rushing yards through two games so far this season.

The Deacons will have their hands full with Boston College’s front seven and likely struggle to protect freshman Sam Harton at quarterback. The Eagle’s physicality will prove to be too much as Boston College soars to a double-digit win in Winston Salem.

Toledo +11 vs #21 Miami (FL)

The once mighty Miami Hurricanes will travel to Toledo to take on the Rockets inside the ever intimidating Glass Bowl Stadium.

The Rockets are one of the better teams in a MAC conference that is often overlooked but produces quality football. Toledo is coming off of a bye week giving them extra time to prepare for a Hurricane team in search of answers. The Rockets return a solid core of starters who went 11-3 a year ago.

Miami’s offensive line has been a train wreck so far (sound familiar?) and quarterback play is a major concern. I expect a sloppy performance from the ‘Canes in a game that is closer than Mark Richt would like.

The Hurricanes pull off the win but leave Toledo with just as many questions as they arrived with.

#12 LSU +10.5 at #7 Auburn

Early playoff implications will be on the line in the CBS game of the week. Both Auburn and LSU boast wins over (then ranked) top 10 foes this season and one will add a top 15 win to its resume this weekend.

LSU’s front seven is one of the most talented in the nation and should give Auburn’s offensive line fits.

I expect LSU to give the ball to senior running back Nick Brossette early and often and he wears down Auburn’s defense.

If this game were to be played in Death Valley, I would like LSU outright. With the game being played in Jordan-Hare Stadium, I expect Auburn to come out with a close win but not covering the 10 and a half points.

#4 Ohio State -13 vs #15 TCU (Arlington, TX)

In two games this season, Ohio State hasn’t missed a beat during Urban Meyer’s suspension. That could change as the Buckeyes will face their first true test of the season this weekend.

The Horned Frogs have been a model of consistency under head coach Gary Patterson who always seems to find every schematic advantage possible on Saturday afternoons. TCU will certainly be out-manned this weekend but they won’t beat themselves.

I see this being a close game early on but the Buckeyes advantage in both trenches has me thinking they cover this one with a late touchdown.

Texas -3.5 vs #22 USC

In what should be a very intriguing Saturday night showdown, I like the home team here. USC quarterback JT Daniels is dealing with a bruised hand which could limit an already struggling offense that failed to score a touchdown a week ago at Stanford.

Tom Herman’s offense at Texas remains looking for answers as well. Look for them to ride running back Tre Watson most of the night. Behind the home crowd, I think Texas squeaks by covering the spread by a final score of 31-27.

Florida State -3 at Syracuse – Over 64.

Double-dipping on this one as two of the other games I originally picked were canceled due to Hurricane Florence.

Despite a very disappointing first two performances by Florida State’s offense, I think some things start to click this weekend. This will be the first normal game week for FSU this season and they have two games of film to break down and clean up some simple mistakes.

One of the reasons for my optimism is directly related to who Florida State is playing. Syracuse will legitimately be the worst defense the ‘Noles will face in all of 2018. The Orange gave up 621 yards and 42 points to Western Michigan to open the season. A week later, that same Western Michigan team scored just 3 points on 208 yards at Michigan.

I think things finally start to slow down for Deondre Francois a bit this weekend as he continues to find comfort in the Gulf Coast Offense. If he can make the right read 70% of the time or better, I expect FSU to score well into the 30’s and potentially higher. Cam Akers and Jacques  Patrick both have big days on the ground.

The biggest issue Florida State will have this weekend is Syracuse quarterback Eric Dungey. Dungey is a mobile quarterback who can extend plays with his legs. Florida State’s defense will have to set the edge and the secondary may be asked to hold their coverage for an extra second or two on some plays.

Harlon Barnett’s unit has struggled mightily coming out of the gate but has settled down after halftime in each of Florida State’s first two games.

I see this one being somewhat of a shootout with FSU scoring late in a 35-31 type football game.

 

 


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