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NoleGameday

Sharp Seven: Week Four

NoleGameday

Last week: 4-3

Season total: 13-10 (57%)

Hopefully, you’ve been riding with us all season as we remain over our goal of picking 55% winners for the year. With that, let’s jump right into this week’s picks.

Air Force (+9.5) at Boise State

Both teams here cover more often than not. The Falcons and Broncos are a combined 17-11-2 ATS since the start of the 2018 season. I just think 9.5 is too many points to lay against a quality team like Air Force on a short week. Boise State wins, Air Force covers.

Tennessee (+14.5) at Florida

Tennessee is bad. Really bad. That said, laying more than two touchdowns on a sleepy nooner is too much here. Jeremy Pruitt will have had a week to prepare for Florida quarterback Kyle Trask who now fills in for the injured Felipe Franks. Trask put on a heroic performance in the Gators’ comeback win at Kentucky but he largely benefited from Mark Stoops not getting the Wildcats prepared to face him. UF has some serious issues up front on the offensive side of the ball so don’t expect the points to be flowing here. UF wins the game but the Vols keep it closer than they probably should.

Michigan at Wisconsin (-2.5)

This one comes down to one thing and one thing only. I just don’t trust Jim Harbaugh on the big stage. He is a very good coach but for whatever reason, his Michigan teams simply don’t get it done when presented with a big opportunity. Harbaugh is just 6-9 against the number dating back to the start of last season and he takes another L here.

Auburn (+4) at Texas A&M.

Jimbo Fisher has been a covering machine since getting to College Station but that changes this weekend. I love Auburn’s physicality up front and ability to get after the passer. There’s a good chance that A&M wins this game but it’s going to be extremely close so I’ll take the four points Vegas is giving here.

Baylor (-25) at Rice

Matt Rhule is quietly turning Baylor back into a respectable football program. We had the Bears hitting over on the 7.5 win total in our futures picks and they get one step closer this weekend with a blowout win over the Owls.

UCLA at Washington State (-17)

This one is pretty simple. Mike Leach is 12-4 ATS since the start of last year while Chip Kelly is just 5-9-1 in that same span. More importantly, we are 5-0 when putting money on Leach dating back to week eight of last year. Just keep riding to Cougars until they give us a reason not to.

Louisville at Florida State (-6.5)

Florida State desperately needs to win this game in order to keep the season from completely derailing. Through three weeks, Kendal Briles already has his offense in the top 15 nationally of the S&P+ rankings despite leaving a lot of yards and points on the field last week. I think they really get things going against an average Cardinals defense this weekend.

The question is can Harlon Barnett’s unit avoid another fourth quarter collapse this weekend? Willie Taggart made a point to mention that Jim Leavitt will be heavily involved in the game-planning this week and I think it pays off.

As of Tuesday morning, a whopping 87% of all tickets placed have been on Louisville. That’s a lot of people going with the wrong team here. I’m taking the ‘Noles to show some fight, get a must-needed win and cover the spread in the process. Good guys by 10+ this weekend.


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