Sharp Seven: Week Three

Last week: 4-3

Season total: 9-7 (56%)

As far as gambling goes, last weeks picks made for an extremely entertaining day. Everything from Jimbo Fisher calling a time out so he could get the backdoor cover with just seconds on the clock to Ed Orgeron dialing up a two-point conversion ensuring the Tigers would cover was a gamblers dream or nightmare, depending on where they chose to lay their money.

With that, we are in the money through three weeks picking a healthy 56% winners. We have some very intriguing lines this week and we are exclusively on the favorites to take care of business.

North Carolina at Wake Forest -3

Mack Brown and the Tar Heels are coming off of two consecutive emotional victories. While a team can certainly gain momentum after such a great start, I think Wake Forest provides a unique test for a UNC team set to play their first true road game of the 2019 season. The Demon Deacons will look to move the ball at hyper-speed which I think causes problems for Brown and the Heels’ defense. This should be a good game but for now, give me Wake and lay the points.

Ohio State -14.5 at Indiana

Ryan Day and the Buckeyes aren’t messing around coming off of an impressive 42-0 blowout of a good Cincinnati team. Indiana looks to be improved and I get they are the home team but this spread is way too generous. Ohio State is winning this one by three touchdowns so go ahead and give the 14.5.

Pittsburgh at Penn State -17

This is one of those rare lines that sits exactly where it opened the week at. Sure this is a “rivalry game” but I think there is just too large of a talent differential here. Since Pitt shocked Penn State in 2016, the Panthers have been outscored 84-20 in the series. Penn State picks up right where they left off last year and covers this one easily.

Stanford at UCF -8

This is one of those lines where we try not to over-complicate things. UCF is quite simply the better team and Stanford has to fly across the country to take on the Knights in Orlando. Unless myself along with the 87% of tickets on UCF are just missing something here, this is a rare instance of Vegas handing out free money.

Oklahoma -22 at UCLA

The Chip Kelly experiment has been a complete disaster so far in Los Angeles. Jalen Hurts and Oklahoma should go into the Rose Bowl and be able to name their number. With a spread like this, the backdoor cover is always in play but I think Kelly’s team has given up on him and we see the Bruins quit in the very near future.

Maryland -7 at Temple

Through two weeks, Maryland looks to have one of the most explosive offenses in the country. We will see how it holds up once the schedule toughens up a bit but I don’t see it happening this week. I do think Temple keeps it close for the majority of the game but I like Maryland to pull away and win this by double-digits.

Florida State at Virginia -7.5

Let’s just say if you’ve decided to fade Willie Taggart and FSU every game since his tenure began last year, you would have made a healthy amount of money so far. Taggart is just 4-10 against the number since taking over in Tallahassee and most of the lines haven’t been close to accurate overvaluing Florida State far too much.

Based on what we’ve seen through two games in 2019, it seems like this may still be the case. When this line opened at 7.5, I thought for sure it would get up close to 10 or more in favor of UVA. Surprisingly it has held strong despite 80% of tickets placed being on the Hoos.

Florida State has a massive talent edge here but the same could have been said for the Seminoles’ first two games. At this point in time, Florida State is simply not well-coached, not discipline has no idea how to handle adversity and they are just not a good football team overall.

On the other sideline, Bronco Mendenhall took over a mess of a program and has turned it into one of the most structured and disciplined programs in the country. The only way I see Florida State keeping it close is if they have a decided advantage in the turnover column or hit a big special teams play or two. Both are things I’m not willing to bet my money on. Take Virginia, lay the points and use your winnings on a nice bottle of bourbon for the remainder of the weekend.

Leave a Reply